Trump midterm pressure intensifies! Again, it’s the economy

Trump midterm pressure grows as problems pile up. Things are simply not going Donald Trump’s way right now — and the U.S. president is responding with increasingly combative rhetoric. A wave of political, economic and foreign-policy problems is hitting the White House just 47 days before the November midterm elections, creating growing Trump midterm pressure at a moment when Republicans are fighting to keep control of Congress.

Trump’s trade war with Canada has pushed America’s northern neighbor closer to Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has now floated an unprecedented form of “associate membership” for Canada, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has embraced deeper economic and strategic ties with the European Union. Trump responded by threatening Europe with new tariffs if he views the move as hostile to the United States.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered another headache for Trump’s economic agenda. The Fed unanimously raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first hike in three years, and signaled that additional tightening could follow as inflation remains stubbornly above target. Trump, who selected Warsh to lead the central bank, immediately complained that U.S. rates should instead be “1%, or less.”

For a president who repeatedly promised to defeat inflation and make everyday life more affordable, the timing could hardly be more politically uncomfortable.

Iran war keeps adding pressure at home

Overseas, there is still no clear end to the Iran war that began on February 28. Trump said this week that he hopes the conflict may finally be approaching its conclusion, but Washington is simultaneously confronting a dangerous expansion of fighting around Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

Iran-backed Houthi forces have captured Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and intensified missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Saudi forces have launched heavy strikes in Yemen. The fighting threatens the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the same time that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply restricted, placing two of the world’s most important energy routes under pressure.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, designed as an escape route when Hormuz is disrupted, has also been hit. Reuters reported Thursday that three pumping stations were damaged and that the pipeline had been carrying roughly four to five million barrels a day — as much as 4% to 5% of global oil supply.

American drivers are feeling the consequences. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.44 per gallon on September 17, compared with $2.98 shortly before the Iran war began. That represents an increase of almost 49%. Diesel has climbed even more dramatically, reaching a record national average of nearly $6.40 per gallon.

Kennedy Center fight adds another spectacle

At home, Trump is also locked in an increasingly bizarre cultural and legal battle over the Kennedy Center. The Trump-aligned board voted this week to close the famous Washington performing arts institution for as long as two years for a $257 million renovation. The decision followed another ruling by a federal judge blocking efforts to permanently place Trump’s name on the congressionally designated memorial to President John F. Kennedy.

Trump has tied the renovation to the naming dispute, saying the project should not proceed unless the courts ultimately permit appropriate recognition of his role. Fencing has already appeared around the building, while opponents have gone back to court warning about possible demolition or irreversible structural changes.

The episode has become another highly visible Washington controversy at a time when the administration is already fighting battles on multiple fronts.

Trump midterm pressure: AI becomes another political flash point

Then there is artificial intelligence. As warnings grow about the risks of increasingly powerful AI systems, Trump continues to argue that the United States cannot afford to slow down while competing with China. The administration’s approach has favored rapid development and relatively light regulation, even as some tech leaders and national-security officials push for stronger safeguards.

That internal struggle burst into public view this week. Forbes, citing a Wall Street Journal investigation, reported that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Elon Musk separately contacted Trump and helped persuade him to block plans for a new AI oversight organization.

The irony is striking: Musk has repeatedly warned about catastrophic AI risks, while Zuckerberg and Huang have resisted new regulatory structures. Meanwhile, Reuters reported Thursday that AI fears are beginning to enter the political debate, including warnings about autonomous systems and calls for human control over critical military decisions. Trump, however, continues to place enormous emphasis on winning the technology race with China. AI will be one of the central subjects when Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrives in Washington next week.

Trump lashes out as economic frustrations grow

Against this backdrop, Trump’s rhetoric has become increasingly confrontational. After von der Leyen proposed a closer EU relationship with Canada, Trump warned that he could impose “very heavy tariffs” on Europe if he considered the move hostile. Canada, meanwhile, is openly seeking to reduce its economic dependence on the United States after months of tariff warfare.

Trump also lashed out at the Federal Reserve after the rate hike, insisting that America’s borrowing costs should be among the lowest in the world. Yet Warsh has stressed that the central bank’s priority remains controlling inflation, and 16 of 18 Fed policymakers now expect at least one additional rate increase this year.

The broader economy, however, is not collapsing. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said this week that growth has strengthened and the labor market remains at or near full employment. U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, while weekly jobless claims just fell to 196,000, the lowest level since mid-July. The problem is inflation: consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier in August, while higher oil, gasoline and borrowing costs are increasingly squeezing households. Consumer sentiment dropped sharply in September to 47.8, with inflation expectations climbing to 4.6% for the coming year. In other words, the economy remains resilient on paper, but many Americans are feeling considerably less optimistic about it.

Affordability remains a major political vulnerability. Reuters reported Thursday that high gasoline prices and the escalating Canada trade dispute are complicating Republican campaigns in states such as Michigan and Maine, where cross-border commerce plays an important economic role.

Trump has countered those concerns with an upbeat message about an American “golden age” and has proposed $5,000 “dividend” checks for adults if Republicans retain congressional power, though the idea has drawn skepticism even from some Republicans worried about inflation and the federal deficit.

Trump can still point to important successes

The picture is not uniformly negative for the administration. Trump’s immigration crackdown has sharply reduced the number of migrants attempting to enter through Mexico. Reuters reported this month that shelters on the Mexican side of the border are largely empty, with some operating at only about 15% of capacity as migrants abandon plans to travel north.

Crime has also declined. FBI data for 2025 showed murders falling 18.1% and overall violent crime dropping 9.3%, the largest annual decline on record. Trump has credited his immigration and law-enforcement policies, although experts note that the national decline in violent crime began before he returned to office.

Those are significant achievements Trump and Republicans are highlighting as they try to move voter attention away from inflation, gasoline prices and foreign conflicts.

Polls underline Republican midterm pressure

Still, recent polling illustrates the political challenge confronting the White House. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released September 14 put Trump’s approval rating at 35%, up slightly from a record low of 33%. In the same survey, voters preferred Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 44% to 37%, the Democrats’ widest advantage in that poll since Trump returned to office in January 2025.

Those numbers do not determine what will happen on November 3. Congressional races are decided district by district and state by state, and national generic-ballot polling cannot predict control of either chamber on its own. But the data explain why Republican candidates are increasingly trying to distance themselves from some of Trump’s less popular policies, particularly tariffs and aspects of his immigration crackdown.

Conservative commentator Leo Hohmann went much further, recently writing that Trump appeared to be “showing signs of having lost touch with reality.” That is Hohmann’s political judgment, not a medical assessment, but the language illustrates how criticism of Trump is now appearing even from some voices on the political right.

Trump remains at the center of the world stage

Despite the domestic pressure, Trump remains one of the central figures in global politics. Next week he will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where the Iran war, artificial intelligence, Ukraine and the broader Middle East crisis are expected to dominate discussions. World leaders begin the high-level debate Tuesday.

Then comes an even bigger diplomatic spectacle: Xi Jinping is expected in Washington on September 24 for talks with Trump and a state dinner at the White House. The two leaders will confront disputes over trade, Taiwan, AI, advanced computer chips and China’s relationship with Iran.

So Trump is hardly disappearing from the world stage. Yet domestically, the accumulating crises are placing him and his party under greater pressure as the midterms approach.

The central political question is no longer whether Trump can dominate the news cycle. He clearly can. It is whether Republicans can persuade voters that the turbulence surrounding his second term is producing results worth preserving when they cast their ballots on November 3.