Iran War looms over 9/11 anniversary as oil spikes again
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Americans are preparing for emotional ceremonies marking the 25th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks this Friday. But as the United States remembers the nearly 3,000 people killed on 9/11, another war is raging thousands of miles away — and again intensifying.
The focus is the Iran war, now more than six months old and once again threatening to plunge the world into a deeper energy crisis. The spiral of attacks and counterattacks between U.S. forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has accelerated sharply. American forces have struck Iranian oil tankers, while Tehran has targeted U.S. warships, military bases and commercial vessels across the Middle East. Reuters reported Wednesday that Iran claimed attacks on ten ships after the United States sank five Iranian tankers.
The renewed fighting represents another major setback in a conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and was initially presented by the Trump administration as a campaign that could achieve its objectives quickly.
Strait of Hormuz traffic plunges again
One of the most serious consequences is unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that before the war carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Shipping traffic has again collapsed. Only six tracked commodity vessels passed through the strait on Tuesday, compared with a 10-day average of 12. Before the war, roughly 125 commercial vessels a day used the waterway.
That is a significant reversal after the White House and Pentagon had recently highlighted improved oil flows through a southern route near Oman protected by U.S. forces. Independent tracking, however, remains difficult because many vessels now make so-called “dark crossings,” switching off tracking equipment because of the danger. Reuters estimates independent oil flows through Hormuz at only around 4.3 million to 5 million barrels per day in early September, far below the roughly 20 million barrels that moved through the strait before the war.
Oil jumps back above $100
The latest victims of the escalation are consumers around the world. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel Wednesday, reaching around $100.66 and crossing the psychologically important threshold for the first time since July. Oil has surged roughly 25 percent since early August as hopes for a lasting settlement of the conflict have faded.
Higher energy prices are again raising fears of more expensive gasoline, transportation and consumer goods in the United States, Europe and elsewhere. They are also reviving concerns that another burst of energy inflation could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.
For President Donald Trump, the renewed crisis also arrives at a politically sensitive moment. The November 3 midterm elections are less than two months away, and Democrats currently hold a roughly six- to eight-point advantage in several averages of the generic congressional ballot.
Iran war weighs on Trump polling
Public opinion on the conflict has become another challenge for the White House. A recent NBC News poll found 69 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, while 31 percent approve. Trump’s overall job approval in the same survey stood at 36 percent.
Trump and Vice President JD Vance have recently sought to distinguish the fighting from a conventional full-scale war. Vance argued that the absence of U.S. ground troops meant the conflict should not necessarily be characterized that way.
Trump went even further last Friday, calling the Iran conflict “small potatoes.” He said he considered it a “military conflict” rather than a major war because U.S. strikes had become intermittent.
The remark drew particular attention because of the human cost. Since fighting began on February 28, 18 U.S. service members have been killed and more than 750 wounded, according to figures cited by Reuters.
So as America prepares to pause Friday for the 25th anniversary of the attacks that launched a generation of U.S. wars in the Middle East, the country faces another unsettling reality: a new conflict that has already lasted more than half a year, disrupted one of the world’s most important energy arteries and once again pushed oil above $100 a barrel.
