Trump Record Low Puts Presidency in Historical Danger Zone

President Donald Trump has fallen to the lowest approval level of his second term as the deeply unpopular Iran war, soaring fuel costs and growing doubts about his leadership drag him further underwater with American voters.

The latest Trump Record Low shows only 38.9 percent of Americans approving of his job performance, while 58.5 percent disapprove, according to the RealClearPolling average cited by America Report.

That leaves Trump with a devastating net approval rating of minus 19.6 percentage points. One of the individual surveys included in the average places his support at only 38 percent.

The collapse follows July’s dramatic escalation in the Iran war, when U.S. forces carried out nearly two weeks of sustained bombardment before another fragile pause in fighting.

A clear pattern has emerged during the conflict: Whenever the war intensifies, Trump’s political standing deteriorates.

Trump Record Low Follows Iran Escalation

Trump initially predicted that the military campaign would last only weeks. Instead, the war has continued for more than five months without a decisive American victory or a stable peace agreement.

The administration has repeatedly shifted between airstrikes, threats, ceasefires and negotiations. Iran remains influential, the Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of tense diplomacy, and American military stockpiles have come under growing pressure.

The war is also deeply unpopular at home. Only about one-third of Americans support the conflict, while large majorities say Trump has failed to explain its goals clearly.

Even within the MAGA movement, support is no longer absolute. Roughly one in five loyal Trump supporters reportedly wants the war ended as quickly as possible.

For many voters, the conflict is no longer a distant foreign-policy crisis. It reaches them every time they fill their cars.

Average U.S. gasoline prices have risen roughly 37 to 38 percent since the war began, while diesel costs have climbed even more sharply. Higher energy prices are feeding transportation, food and household expenses, intensifying the cost-of-living crisis ahead of the November midterms.

Is Trump the Least Popular President Ever?

Not yet.

Trump’s current polling is politically disastrous, but several modern presidents experienced even lower individual Gallup ratings during moments of national crisis.

Harry Truman holds the postwar record low, falling to just 22 percent approval in February 1952 during the Korean War and amid accusations of corruption inside his administration.

Richard Nixon reached 24 percent in July and August 1974 as the Watergate scandal closed in and his resignation became inevitable.

George W. Bush fell to 25 percent in October 2008 during the financial crisis and the final months of the Iraq war.

Jimmy Carter reached 28 percent in June 1979 amid inflation, energy shortages and a broader crisis of confidence. George H. W. Bush fell to 29 percent in July 1992 during a recession and an unsuccessful re-election campaign.

Trump’s own Gallup low during his first term was 34 percent in January 2021, following the attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Barack Obama’s lowest Gallup figure was 38 percent—almost identical to Trump’s current average—while Joe Biden bottomed out at 36 percent in July 2024.

However, there is an important difference between a single Gallup poll and a polling average. Trump’s 38.9 percent figure combines several major surveys, making it a broader measure of sustained public dissatisfaction rather than one especially negative snapshot.

Second-Term Warning Signs

Historical comparisons offer Trump little comfort.

The lowest second-term averages recorded by Gallup belonged to Richard Nixon, at 34.4 percent, and Harry Truman and George W. Bush, both at 36.5 percent.

Trump’s current approval rating is only a few points above that politically catastrophic territory.

Nixon’s second term ended in resignation. Truman left office deeply unpopular. Bush finished his presidency amid two wars and the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression.

Trump has not reached those historical depths, but the direction is unmistakably dangerous.

His numbers among moderate Republicans have also deteriorated sharply, especially on inflation, the economy and the Iran war—raising the possibility that dissatisfaction could spread from independents into parts of his own coalition.

Midterm Disaster Looms

The Trump Record Low threatens more than the president’s personal reputation.

Around three months before the midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by approximately 48.3 percent to 41.1 percent in the generic congressional ballot cited by America Report.

The generic ballot asks voters which party they would support for Congress without naming specific candidates. It does not predict the exact number of seats, but it is an important measure of the national political environment.

A Democratic advantage of more than seven points would place Republican control of both the House and Senate in serious danger.

If Democrats capture Congress, they could block Trump’s legislative agenda, open investigations into his administration and business relationships, and turn him into a politically weakened lame-duck president.

Trump appears to understand the danger. He needs an exit from the war he launched—but every option carries risks.

A major new offensive could push fuel prices and casualties higher. A compromise with Tehran could be portrayed as a strategic defeat. Another failed ceasefire would reinforce the impression that Trump has lost control of the conflict.

Trump is not yet the least popular president in American history. But with approval at 38.9 percent, the Iran war dragging on and Republicans sliding before the midterms, he is entering the historical danger zone occupied by presidencies in deep crisis.