Trump Losing Power as Iran War Consumes His Presidency

He has tried almost everything: airstrikes, negotiations, threats and offers. But the longer the Iran conflict drags on, the clearer becomes a new story line: Donald Trump losing power. The U.S. President is holding fewer and fewer good cards. It seems that he simply cannot end the war he ordered — no matter how much he appears to want to. His latest tactical shift is to wait. The White House is now betting that the continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will suffocate Iran’s economy and weaken the regime in Tehran.

And the economic crisis inside Iran is indeed getting worse: oil exports, the country’s most important source of foreign currency, have at times fallen by as much as 90 percent, inflation for goods has surged to around 120 percent compared with a year earlier, and shortages are spreading. There have even been reports of desperate Iranians selling their hair for money. Yet politically, the pressure has not produced the result Washington hoped for. Hardliners in Tehran remain firmly in control, while ordinary Iranians continue to live under repression.

Trump now appears to be waiting for economic collapse to do what American bombs and diplomatic pressure have failed to achieve. But he cannot afford to wait forever. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade moved before the war, remains largely blocked. Last week, an average of only about 11 ships per day passed through the waterway, compared with around 130 before the conflict. At times, roughly 10 percent of global oil supply has effectively been removed from the market, keeping energy prices elevated and adding pressure on transportation and consumer costs around the world. For Trump, that means the war is no longer only a foreign-policy problem. Its economic consequences are increasingly coming home to American voters.

The 80-year-old president appears to be realizing that the conflict is slowly consuming his presidency. Trump is stuck in an Iran trap. A new military escalation is becoming more difficult because U.S. inventories of interceptor missiles and long-range precision weapons have fallen sharply during the war. More than 60 percent of the original U.S. Patriot interceptor stockpile is estimated to have been used. That leaves Trump with fewer military options at exactly the moment when he continues to threaten Tehran with devastating new attacks. Escalating further could burn through even more scarce weapons that the United States may also need for Ukraine, NATO defense or a future confrontation with China or North Korea.

Americans Are Turning Against the War

The pressure at home is growing just as quickly. Polling shows that support for the military campaign in the Middle East has fallen sharply, while Trump himself is suffering his worst approval slump since returning to the Oval Office, with his average rating hovering around 39 percent. The Iran war has become one of his biggest political liabilities because it cuts directly against one of his central campaign promises: that America would stop fighting endless wars abroad. Instead, the United States is now more than five months into another Middle Eastern conflict with no clear end in sight, rising economic costs and no decisive strategic victory to show for it.

The president has also been hit by disappointing economic numbers. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while growth in the second quarter came in at just 1.5 percent on an annualized basis, weaker than the strong expansion Trump repeatedly promised. Among the factors weighing on the economy are higher energy and transportation costs connected to the Iran conflict, as well as higher import costs from Trump’s expanding trade wars and tariffs. Trump himself continues to paint a very different picture, repeatedly describing America as entering a new “Golden Age.” There is at least one important bright spot for the Trump economy: U.S. stock markets continue to reach or approach record highs. But Wall Street alone may not be enough to reassure voters who experience the economy through gasoline prices, food bills, wages and job security.

Republicans Face a Midterm Threat

The Republicans are now heading toward the November midterms with less than three months remaining and potentially facing a major defeat. Democrats currently lead by roughly seven percentage points in several generic congressional-ballot averages. Trump’s party risks losing control of one or even both chambers of Congress. If that happens, the final two years of his presidency could look completely different. A Democratic-controlled House could block large parts of Trump’s agenda and launch aggressive congressional investigations. If Democrats also take the Senate, Trump could face even greater resistance over appointments, legislation and spending. The president who returned to Washington with enormous political power could suddenly find himself largely paralyzed.

Political obituaries for a troubled second term are already beginning to appear. Trump does have foreign-policy achievements he can point to: he helped secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza, and his administration also removed Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro from power. But two wars continue to overshadow those successes. Trump repeatedly promised that he would end the Ukraine war on “Day One” after returning to the Oval Office. 569 days later, the bloodshed continues. And then there is Iran. What Trump initially expected to become a relatively short military confrontation has turned into an increasingly costly strategic stalemate. Iran remains defiant, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, U.S. missile stocks are shrinking, oil prices remain elevated, American voters increasingly oppose the war, and the midterms are approaching.

Trump Losing Power

That is the central problem for Trump now. His formal powers have not disappeared. He remains commander in chief and still dominates the Republican Party. But his actual room for maneuver is shrinking. Every available option comes with a political or strategic price. Escalate the war, and America burns through even more scarce missiles while oil prices could surge again. Wait, and the political and economic damage continues. Make major concessions, and Tehran can claim victory. Walk away, and Trump risks being accused of losing the war he started.

The greatest irony of his second presidency is therefore becoming impossible to ignore. Trump campaigned on a promise to avoid new “endless wars” — especially in the Middle East. Then he walked directly into one.