Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Limits to “Pipeline Plan” – Expert

As the Strait of Hormuz Blockade enters a critical new phase this April, the world’s eyes have turned to terrestrial “Plan B” routes to keep the global economy afloat. However, according to Jonathan Schroden—a leading expert on strategic competition and force design—the math behind these alternatives is far less optimistic than many in Washington and Brussels hope.

Schroden notes that while the Saudi East-West Pipeline was built specifically to bypass the Strait during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, its current contributions are merely a drop in the bucket compared to the 20 million barrels per day (b/d) that transited the waterway before its closure.

The Math of the “East-West” Bypass

In his latest assessment, Schroden highlights the severe physical limitations of the Saudi infrastructure:

• Capacity Gap: Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased the throughput of the East-West Pipeline from its normal rate of 5 million b/d to its maximum capacity of 7 million b/d.

• The 10% Reality: Schroden points out that this 2 million b/d increase represents only 10% of the total volume lost to the Strait of Hormuz Blockade.

• Terminal Bottlenecks: There are lingering questions about whether the terminal end of the pipeline can “seamlessly handle” this additional volume, potentially creating further delays even if the oil reaches the Red Sea.

The “Tyranny of Distance” and Security Risks

Even if the volume were sufficient, the physical security of these “energy arteries” remains a primary concern for military planners. Schroden emphasizes that terrestrial routes are just as vulnerable as maritime ones.

“It’s very difficult to completely secure a pipeline that stretches for nearly 750 miles (1200 km),” Schroden noted, reminding observers that the East-West Pipeline was successfully attacked and briefly shut down by the Houthis in 2019.

While Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in security since those strikes, the sheer scale of the infrastructure makes it an attractive target for asymmetric warfare—a theme Schroden explores in his forthcoming book, US Counter-terrorism Operations in Afghanistan (2026).

No “Quick Fix” for the Energy Deadlock

For those suggesting that the solution lies in building more high-capacity pipelines to permanently end the Strait of Hormuz Blockade, Schroden offers a reality check on the timeline and cost.

“Those would be very expensive projects that would take years to bring to fruition,” Schroden warned.

With the Global Energy Crisis already driving gas prices up by a dollar and U.S. markets down 7%, the world does not have years to wait for a structural solution. Schroden’s data suggests, the physical reality of the Gulf’s geography may leave the U.S. and its allies with only two choices: a long-term economic “quagmire”, a direct military escalation to reopen the Strait by force – or a negotiated end of the war where Teheran would open the Straits.