Iran War Until 2029? Tehran Threatens to Outlast Trump
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Could the Iran War Until 2029 become reality — with Donald Trump (80) leaving office before the conflict ends? A chilling statement from a senior adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards is raising exactly that possibility.
Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the IRGC commander, suggested Iran could deliberately prolong the conflict until Trump is gone. The strategy, he argued, would be one of attrition: make attacking Iran so costly that future U.S. presidents think twice. Naqdi portrayed Tehran as confident, declaring that victory was on Iran’s side and claiming the U.S. military had proved weaker than expected.
Tehran’s Strategy: We Have More Time Than Trump
The central question is now simple: Who blinks first?
U.S. military expert Jonathan Schroden cautions against predicting that outcome. “I’m wary of making a prediction on ‘who blinks first’ because there are so many ways this could go,” he told America Report.
But Schroden believes Iran’s message is carefully calculated. First, Tehran wants to contrast itself with a U.S. administration that has repeatedly pushed for a fast agreement.
Iran is trying to portray itself diplomatically as “the patient, less concerned party in the negotiations,” Schroden said.
That strategy could become increasingly painful for Trump. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains dramatically below normal levels. Before the war, roughly 130 ships passed through the waterway daily. Recently, the average has fallen to around 11.
A prolonged blockade would keep pressure on the world economy. U.S. gasoline prices are roughly 40 percent higher than before the war, while German motorists have also faced significant increases. Even a sustained $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil over another two and a half years would mean roughly $900 billion in additional global oil spending.
Iran Is Paying a Brutal Price Too
Trump is betting Tehran cannot sustain the economic punishment indefinitely.
The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is strangling one of the regime’s most important sources of revenue. Iran’s economy is expected to shrink sharply this year, while inflation has exploded. Millions of Iranians are struggling to afford everyday necessities such as food and medicine, with reports of families relying increasingly on installment payments, credit apps and debt.
Yet the economic pain has not produced political surrender. Hardliners remain firmly in control.
Iran War Until 2029? The Jimmy Carter Nightmare
Schroden believes Tehran’s rhetoric has another target: Trump’s political ego.
Iran may be deliberately trying to “engender comparisons of President Trump to President Jimmy Carter,” he said — a president whose confrontation with Iran and the prolonged hostage crisis contributed heavily to his political troubles.
That comparison could infuriate Trump. He has repeatedly portrayed Carter as a symbol of presidential weakness and even recently invoked him while discussing the risks of failed military operations against Iran.
Schroden said it remains an open question whether Tehran could really survive another two and a half years of war.
But Iran may not need to.
“Whether or not Iran could hold out until the end of Trump’s full term is an open question,” Schroden said. “But it seems eminently likely that they could hold out until after the U.S. midterm elections, while causing President Trump and his party significant political headaches along the way.”
Those elections are now less than three months away.
For Tehran, simply keeping the crisis alive until November could therefore already count as a strategic victory.
