Iran War Escalation: Trump Faces Domestic Setbacks – Experts

President Donald Trump is facing mounting domestic pressure as the Iran War escalation brings more American casualties, rising gasoline prices and growing doubts among Republican lawmakers.

Seventeen U.S. service members have now been killed since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. More than 400 American troops have been wounded. The latest fatalities include two soldiers killed in an Iranian missile and drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan and another service member who died while disposing of explosives from a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq.

For foreign-policy expert Jonathan Cristol, the political impact is not determined by the death toll alone. Instead, it is the steady stream of reports about dead and injured Americans that gradually erodes support for a war.

“Generally speaking, American public support for a military conflict starts out quite high and then steadily drops as the conflict drags on,” Cristol told America Report. “It is more about attrition than about the raw numbers.”

Iran War Escalation Erodes Public Support

The political danger for Trump is even greater because the war was unpopular from the beginning.

A recent Economist/YouGov survey found that 57 percent of Americans believe going to war with Iran was the wrong decision. Only 27 percent said it was the right one.

“This war started out unpopular,” Cristol said. “As we start to see headlines about dead American servicemen and servicewomen, it will become even less popular among the American public.”

Trump may not be particularly concerned about unfavorable polls, Cristol argued. Republican lawmakers facing voters in the midterm elections, however, cannot afford to ignore them.

“Other Republican elected officials will start to apply more pressure on Trump to find a way out of this self-created mess,” he said.

Political scientist Scott Erb also sees increasing anxiety inside Trump’s party.

“I think the pressure on President Trump is growing, as many Republicans are questioning the war more than before,” Erb told America Report.

Trump had repeatedly claimed that Iran’s military capacity had been eliminated. But renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. troops and bases have undermined that assertion.

“Clearly, that’s not true,” Erb said.

Gas Prices Increase Pressure on Trump

The Iran War escalation is also affecting Americans far from the battlefield. Gasoline prices are rising again as renewed fighting threatens oil shipments and increases uncertainty across the Middle East.

“The pressure is indeed growing — not just because of the dead Americans, but also because gas prices are rising again,” Erb said.

With the midterm elections approaching, higher fuel costs could become a particularly dangerous political problem for Republicans. Voters may not follow every military development, but they notice immediately when filling their cars becomes more expensive.

“With the midterms nearing and gas prices climbing, Trump either needs a clear victory or some kind of agreement,” Erb said.

The prolonged conflict is also raising concerns about U.S. weapons supplies. American forces have used large numbers of expensive missiles and other ammunition during months of fighting.

“There are also concerns about using up the supply of missiles and ammo,” Erb said.

Replenishing some advanced weapons could take years, potentially reducing U.S. preparedness for another major conflict.

Experts Expect New Negotiations

Neither expert sees a realistic path toward a quick military victory.

“I don’t see any path to quick victory, so I suspect negotiations will resume,” Erb said. “But both sides want to go into any future talks showing strength.”

That dynamic could explain the latest military escalation. Washington and Tehran may both be trying to improve their negotiating positions before returning to diplomacy.

Yet Cristol is deeply skeptical that growing political pressure will force Trump to adopt a coherent new strategy.

“‘New’ implies that there was a pre-existing strategy,” he said. “As much as it pains me to say it, I see no evidence of any strategy at all.”

Cristol added one particularly sharp accusation: The only apparent strategy, he said, was Trump “personally capitalizing on market volatility.”

For Trump, the domestic setbacks are now accumulating. American casualties are rising. Gasoline prices are climbing. Republican criticism is becoming louder. And after nearly five months of war, there is still no clear path to victory — or to peace.