Iran Quagmire! Trump Faces Dangerous Second Front – Expert
Sign up for our free newsletter
Subscribe to the America Report Updates to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.
Iran Quagmire fears are growing in Washington as President Donald Trump’s war expands from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, threatening a second vital shipping route and pushing global oil prices back above $100 per barrel.
The United States carried out its 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran on Thursday, targeting military infrastructure linked to Tehran’s attacks on commercial shipping. Washington says the campaign is designed to weaken Iran’s forces, break its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and restore maritime traffic through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Last night, the Houthis struck a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. This was the first Houthi attack since they announced their new naval blockade.
THE HOUTHIS CONTROL THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT.pic.twitter.com/EteNMiXSQR
— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) July 23, 2026
But roughly 2,000 kilometers away, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have opened another front. The group said it attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea after threatening a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The escalation places the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the southern gateway to the Red Sea and Suez Canal—at risk just as Gulf exporters are trying to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
Iran Quagmire Spreads to Red Sea
The danger is no longer limited to Iran’s immediate coastline. The Houthis can use missiles, inexpensive drones, naval mines and armed boats to threaten tankers traveling between the Indian Ocean and Europe.
“The expansion into the Red Sea makes the situation significantly more complicated for the United States because the war is now being fought on multiple fronts,” U.S. military expert Jonathan Schroden told America Report.
About 12 percent of global trade normally passes through the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea corridor. A sustained blockade could force vessels to travel around Africa, adding weeks to deliveries and sharply increasing fuel, insurance and freight costs.
Markets reacted immediately. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel Thursday after the tanker attacks, while global oil supplies were already millions of barrels below prewar levels.
Air Power Reaches Its Limits
Trump continues to project confidence, but his strategy faces a central problem. American airstrikes can destroy weapons, bases and command centers, while the blockade of Iranian ports increases economic pressure. Schroden described Washington’s approach as a strategy of attrition and “maximum pain imposition.”
Yet Iran’s leadership has shown little willingness to surrender.
“Even an escalation of attacks on bridges, power plants and other infrastructure would be unlikely to force Iran’s capitulation,” Schroden said.
The history of air warfare suggests that bombing alone rarely produces political surrender when an adversary retains functioning leadership, dispersed forces and outside proxies. The Houthis’ intervention demonstrates that Tehran can also widen the battlefield without directly deploying large conventional forces.
Iran Quagmire Becomes Political Threat
Schroden believes the conflict will ultimately require negotiations. However, Washington and Tehran remain far apart.
“I unfortunately expect a cycle of talks, violence, more talks and renewed violence for quite some time,” he said.
That prospect raises another question: Does Trump have the political endurance for a prolonged Iran Quagmire?
Four more U.S. service members returned home in flag-draped transfer cases Wednesday. Eighteen American troops have now been killed and more than 450 injured since the war began, while its direct cost has reached at least $37.5 billion.
Trump promised a quick victory. Instead, the war is spreading, oil prices are soaring and the feared Iran Quagmire may only be beginning.
Potential Impact on Global Oil Supplies is Enormous
Oil analyst Andrew Lipow told America Report that about 20 million barrels per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict, including 14 million barrels of crude. Roughly 5.75 million barrels could be redirected through pipelines, with 4.5 million barrels flowing through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
But that alternative is now also exposed: Lipow estimates that a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could disrupt about 2.5 million barrels of crude exports per day. If the Houthis damage or blockade Yanbu itself, at least 4.5 million barrels—and potentially more than five million barrels per day—could be affected.
“I would expect that if the Houthis were to blockade this route, oil prices would rise $10 per barrel,” Lipow said.
