Hormuz Blockade Keeps Prices High Until 2027 – Expert

The Hormuz blockade is no longer just an energy story. It is turning into a broader economic shock with consequences that could last well beyond the fighting. Security expert Jonathan Schroden says consumers should not expect oil and gas prices to drop quickly even if the vital waterway reopens, because the damage to production, contracts and shipping flows has already spread across the Gulf. Brent crude was trading above $103 a barrel on April 23, underlining how nervous the market remains.

Schroden said the crisis has already had a significant effect on oil markets and warned that prices are likely to stay high for months even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. His point is simple: once production is interrupted and export schedules collapse, prices do not just fall back to pre-war levels overnight. Kuwait has already declared force majeure on some oil contracts, a sign that the disruption has moved beyond short-term market panic and into real supply damage.

Hormuz Blockade Leaves Lasting Damage

That is why the Hormuz blockade may keep hitting consumers long after the first tankers start moving again. The closure has already disrupted output, shipping insurance, freight patterns and refinery planning. Analysts now expect that even a formal reopening would not restore normal oil flows immediately. Instead, the market would still have to work through delayed cargoes, missing barrels and higher transport costs.

For drivers and households, the message is grim. Gasoline and diesel prices may remain elevated for months, and they could climb further if the conflict worsens or if restoration efforts move slowly. Refiners in Asia have already cut runs, which adds more strain to supplies of diesel and jet fuel. That means the Hormuz blockade is not just a headline for traders in London or New York. It is a problem that can keep feeding inflation across multiple sectors.

Hormuz Blockade Threatens Food Security

Schroden also pointed to a second risk that has received far less attention: fertilizer. He warned that the disruption to urea shipments through the Gulf may prove even more damaging over the longer term than the energy shock itself. A large share of the world’s urea trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making the route critical not only for fuel markets but also for global agriculture.

That matters because higher fertilizer prices usually mean higher food prices later. Farmers facing sharply higher input costs often reduce purchases or delay use, which can lower crop yields in the following planting cycles. Schroden said those ripple effects are likely to hit lower-income and developing countries hardest, because they are less able to absorb higher food import costs. In recent days, buyers such as India have already moved to secure massive urea volumes at sharply higher prices, showing how quickly this pressure is building.

The broader warning is clear. The Hormuz blockade is not only an oil crisis. It is also a supply-chain crisis with the potential to raise transport costs, push up grocery bills and deepen food insecurity around the world. Even if the waterway reopens soon, the economic aftershocks are likely to last much longer. And as Schroden makes clear, consumers should be prepared for high energy and food costs to remain part of daily life for many months to come.