Trump Iran Deal Dilemma As Breakthrough ‘Elusive’ – Expert

President Donald Trump’s Iran deal dilemma is getting harder by the day. After weeks of war, a fragile ceasefire and rising pressure from oil markets, Trump needs a breakthrough. But according to foreign policy expert Jonathan Cristol, nobody should expect a quick or stable agreement between Washington and Tehran.

“I do not think that anyone should be holding their breath waiting for the ever-elusive deal between the U.S. and Iran,” Cristol said.

His assessment cuts directly into Trump’s biggest problem. The president has promised a stronger deal than the 2015 nuclear agreement reached under Barack Obama. But the talks remain stuck. And the longer they drag on, the more Iran may benefit.

Cristol said there is “no reason to believe” the two sides are closer to a deal now than they were “a day ago, a week ago, or a month ago.”

Trump Wants A Better Deal

Trump has long attacked Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. He withdrew from it during his first term and repeatedly described it as weak, dangerous and one-sided. But Cristol argues that Trump’s view of the agreement may be built more on politics than on the document itself.

“There is a zero percent chance that Trump has read the JCPOA itself,” Cristol said, noting that the deal runs more than 110 pages.

He said the agreement is difficult to fully understand without expertise in nuclear physics, geopolitics and sanctions law.

“What Trump understands the JCPOA to be is the caricature presented by Trump himself,” Cristol said.

That creates a political trap. Trump does not only need a deal. He needs a deal he can sell as tougher than Obama’s. Yet the current negotiating reality may not allow that.

Tehran Has Time

Cristol said the problem may not simply be dysfunction inside the Iranian government. He said there may be “genuine confusion” in Tehran about the process and personnel needed to approve an agreement after several leaders were killed early in the war. But he sees a bigger obstacle.

“For the time being, there is no real deal to be had,” Cristol said.

He believes Trump is serious about reaching an agreement. But he questions Trump’s negotiating logic.

Trump, he said, appears to think that if Iran rejects “deal X,” it may later accept “deal less-than-X.”

“That makes no sense to me at all,” Cristol said.

This is the core of the Iran deal dilemma. Trump needs leverage. But time may be shifting leverage toward Tehran.

Oil Prices Strengthen Iran

The war has become increasingly unpopular. At the same time, oil markets are adjusting to the idea that high prices may not fall quickly.

That combination weakens Washington and strengthens Iran, Cristol said.

“As the war becomes increasingly unpopular and as the markets realize that the high price of oil is here to stay for a while, Iran’s position improves as ours weakens,” he said.

That gives Tehran a clear incentive to slow the process.

“Tehran has every incentive to drag out talks as long as possible, and Trump is inadvertently giving them every incentive to do so,” Cristol said.

Washington Looks Outplayed

Cristol’s harshest warning is about strategy. He said the Trump administration would have been in a better position if it had explained the war more clearly to Americans and tried to build public support for it.

Instead, he said, the White House allowed the political pressure to grow while Iran waited.

“At this point Tehran appears to understand Washington better than the White House understands Tehran,” Cristol said.

That, he argued, gives Iran the advantage and makes a genuine deal unlikely in the short term.

For Trump, the dilemma is now clear. A weak deal would invite comparisons to Obama. No deal keeps oil prices high and the ceasefire unstable. A tougher military path risks widening the war.