Obama trap, Mullah chaos: Why Trump’s Iran peace is stuck

The fight over an Iran peace deal appears stuck, despite recent optimistic signals from Washington that an agreement could be within reach. President Donald Trump now appears to be pushing to renegotiate key parts of a broad draft. His central demand remains unchanged: Iran must agree that it will never possess a nuclear weapon. Trump also wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened for full shipping traffic.

That demand has become one of the biggest obstacles in the talks. Critics note that the Hormuz crisis did not exist in this form before the war. Now, after 39 days of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and 54 days of a fragile ceasefire, much of the world is still waiting for a breakthrough. Energy markets remain under pressure. Fuel prices are still high. Airlines also face concerns about possible kerosene shortages during the summer travel season.

The Shadow Of Obama’s Iran Deal

One problem for Trump is his own history with the Iran nuclear issue. Former President Barack Obama reached the 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran, known as the JCPOA. The deal placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program. It limited uranium enrichment, reduced Iran’s nuclear stockpile and allowed inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Trump withdrew from the deal during his first term. He has repeatedly mocked Obama’s agreement as a “dumb deal.” But that now creates a political trap for Trump.

Any new agreement must look stronger than Obama’s deal. So far, there are few clear signs that it will. Some of the most difficult questions about Iran’s nuclear weapons potential appear to have been pushed into later negotiations.

Security expert Jonathan Schroden told America Report:

“I can’t speak for what Trump is thinking, so I can’t answer this directly. What I can say is that this is a very difficult negotiation.”

He said the stakes are very different for both sides.

“For Iran, it’s effectively existential, as the US is asking them to give up the possibility of generating a nuclear weapon — what could be considered the ultimate protection from future US or Israeli attacks,” Schroden said.

Iran Peace: Trump Needs Favorable Terms

For Washington, the issue is not existential. But it is highly political.

“The war has been so far quite unpopular, so the administration needs an agreement to have favorable terms in order to counter the negative politics of the war thus far,” Schroden said.

His conclusion: “Both sides are asking for a lot and so far clearly more than each side is willing to give.”

The negotiations are also complicated by Tehran’s internal power struggle. Hardliners in parliament, the Revolutionary Guards and more pragmatic negotiators are all fighting over Iran’s position.

Mojtaba Khamenei remains a hard-to-reach power figure. Communication with him reportedly runs through indirect channels and messengers. Answers can take days. His exact authority inside the regime also remains disputed.

Why Hormuz Is Hard To Open By Force

The Strait of Hormuz remains the most immediate global problem. It is one of the world’s most important oil routes. But opening it by force is risky.

Trump tried to secure passage through “Project Freedom” early last month. The effort was paused after about a day and a half. Gulf states feared a new military escalation.

Schroden said the danger remains too high for a purely military solution.

“The Strait remains hard to open militarily because the threat Iran can pose to US or allies’ Navy ships remains higher than those countries are willing to accept,” he said.

He added: “The combination of undersea mines, surface fast attack craft, and drones and missiles in the air is a formidable threat to capital ships operating in a very confined space.”

That leaves the peace process in limbo. Trump needs a deal that looks stronger than Obama’s nuclear agreement. Iran wants protection from future attacks. The world wants Hormuz open again. So far, none of those goals has been fully met.