NYC Nor’easter: Big Apple in bullseye of monster storm
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Alarm is rising in the Big Apple: The developing NYC nor’easter is tracking closer to the New York metropolitan area than earlier forecasts suggested, increasing the threat of strong winds, rough surf, coastal flooding and weekend rain from the Jersey Shore across Long Island and into New England.
The coastal storm is expected to strengthen Friday and linger through the weekend, creating a prolonged period of northeast winds. Around New York City, gusts are expected to climb above 30 mph from Friday through Sunday, while Long Island could see 40 to 50 mph gusts because it will sit closer to the storm’s center. The National Weather Service has already issued a Wind Advisory, High Surf Advisory, rip-current warnings and coastal-flood statements for parts of the city and surrounding shoreline.
NYC nor’easter threat grows
The storm’s exact track had been uncertain earlier in the week, but American and European forecast models have moved closer together and now show the low pressure system strengthening offshore before moving north toward the Mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England. That closer path increases the risk of stronger winds and higher water along exposed beaches and bays.
Rain could begin reaching the tri-state area as early as Friday afternoon and continue on and off through the weekend. The biggest rainfall totals are expected across Long Island and southeastern New England. Some locations on Long Island could receive up to around two inches, although forecasters stress that rainfall totals remain one of the biggest uncertainties.
For New York City itself, the greatest concerns are less about extreme rainfall and more about a dangerous combination of persistent wind, high surf and tidal flooding. The National Weather Service says coastal flooding and beach erosion will peak Friday into Saturday, with dangerous rip currents continuing into the weekend.
NYC Nor’easter: Full moon makes flooding worse
One problem is coming from above: Saturday’s full moon will produce naturally higher tides just as the storm pushes Atlantic water toward the coastline.
That combination could worsen flooding along the South Shore of Long Island, New York Harbor, the Jersey Shore and vulnerable back bays. Waves pounding beaches for several days could also accelerate erosion and overwhelm dunes. Forecasters warn that repeated high-tide cycles may produce more serious flooding than a single short-lived surge.
Southern Nassau County has already been placed under a Coastal Flood Watch for high-tide cycles Friday evening and Saturday morning, while coastal advisories and statements cover parts of Suffolk County, New York City and New Jersey.
City prepares for a rough weekend
New Yorkers should expect a gray, increasingly windy weekend, particularly near the waterfront. Outdoor activities, ferry operations and coastal travel could face disruptions if winds and water levels rise as currently projected.
The storm is not expected to become a repeat of Superstorm Sandy — meteorologists stress that the systems are fundamentally different — and current forecasts describe the New York-area event overall as a low-to-moderate impact nor’easter. But even a weaker coastal storm can create major local problems when strong winds persist for days and coincide with elevated astronomical tides.
The current forecast for Saturday in New York calls for windy conditions with periods of rain and the potential for street and coastal flooding, before rain and wind continue into Sunday.
New England faces the greater danger
Farther north, the storm could become significantly more dangerous.
The National Weather Service in Boston has issued a High Wind Warning along the coast, Wind Advisories farther inland, Storm Warnings for surrounding waters and Coastal Flood Watches for eastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands. Forecasters warn of strong to damaging gusts, beach erosion, heavy rain and possible power outages as the system reaches New England late Friday and through the weekend.
AccuWeather warns that some parts of coastal New England could experience hurricane-force gusts, particularly around exposed areas of Cape Cod and nearby islands. Long-duration pounding surf could cause serious beach erosion all the way from North Carolina to southern Maine.
Long-duration storm is the key danger
What makes this nor’easter particularly troublesome is not simply its peak strength but how long it could sit offshore.
The storm may meander near the Northeast coast through much of the weekend, allowing repeated rounds of wind-driven water to pile against beaches and coastal communities. Fully leafed trees across the Northeast also increase the danger of falling branches and power outages if the strongest gusts arrive.
The low is expected to finally weaken late Sunday into Monday, with calmer and warmer weather returning to the New York region next week. For now, however, the trend is moving in the wrong direction for the coast: a stronger storm, a closer track and several days of wind pushing directly toward New York and New England.
