Castro Family Re-Emerges As Cuba Struggles With US Pressure

The “maximum pressure” campaign from Washington has triggered a significant internal shift in Havana, exposing a rift between the island’s nominal leadership and the enduring power of the Castro family. According to Professor Jorge Duany, former director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, the U.S. oil blockade initiated in January 2026 has pushed the Cuban government into a “state of preparation for war,” forcing the old guard to step back into the spotlight to ensure regime survival.

While President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains the public face of the government, he is increasingly viewed as a “bureaucratic party figure” with little popular support. The real authority continues to reside with the 94-year-old Raúl Castro and the powerful military-linked conglomerate GAESA. This shift away from the “post-Castro transition” narrative suggests that the Castro family is tightening its grip as the humanitarian crisis deepens.

Who is Who: The Real Power Players in Havana

Professor Duany’s assessment identifies several key figures currently navigating the crisis, highlighting the central role of the Castro family:

• Raúl Castro: Despite his 2018 resignation, he remains the “key political leader” and the ultimate authority over the Cuban military.

• Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro (“El Cangrejo”), pictured above: Raúl’s grandson and former bodyguard has emerged as a high-stakes diplomatic wildcard. Reports indicate he has bypassed traditional channels to hold secret negotiations with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

• The GAESA Conglomerate: This military-industrial complex, overseen by members of the Castro Family, manages the vast majority of the island’s economy, including tourism and foreign exchange.

• Miguel Díaz-Canel: The current President, who is struggling to maintain “impregnable resistance” while the electrical grid collapses and the population faces extreme shortages.

The Strategy of “Impregnable Resistance”

The Trump administration’s decision to reinforce the Cuba oil blockade has left Havana with few options. In response, the National Defense Council has activated the “War of the Entire People” doctrine, a legal framework that militarizes civilian neighborhoods and subordinates all social structures to the military hierarchy controlled by the Castro family.

Despite the “state of war” rhetoric, Duany notes that Cuban officials are signaling a quiet openness to specific economic concessions—including foreign investment and property claims—provided the socialist system remains untouched. However, Washington’s demand for a total leadership change remains the primary sticking point for the ruling elite.

GAESA and the Economic Fortress

The internal power dynamics are inextricably linked to GAESA. As the economic pressure intensifies, the Castro family uses its oversight of this conglomerate as an ultimate insurance policy. By controlling the flow of what little currency and fuel remain, they ensure that the military stays loyal even as the general population faces extreme shortages of food and medicine.

“Cuban leaders are trying to remain in power without making major concessions to the U.S.,” Duany explains. Yet, with the Iran war preoccupying Washington and a Russian tanker currently unloading 730,000 barrels of oil in Havana harbor, the regime is betting that the Castro family can outlast the blockade through a mixture of rigid military management and opportunistic diplomacy.