Can Pipelines End Hormuz Crisis? Expert Points to New Risks

The Gulf wants to build its way out of Iran’s chokehold. But one energy expert is warning: That may not be enough. The Hormuz crisis has triggered a frantic search for new oil routes across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia relies on its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates is pushing more oil toward Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait is looking at pipeline options. Iraq is reviving routes toward Turkey and Jordan.

Yet Clayton Seigle, a U.S. energy expert, says the Gulf should not believe that steel pipes alone can solve the Iran problem.

“Investments to diversify export routes will be one part of the puzzle,” Seigle told America Report. But he warned that countries will likely “avoid overindexing on that specific solution.”

Pipelines Are Not A Magic Shield

The reason is simple: Pipelines can also be attacked.

“Pipelines, rail, and other transportation modes are also vulnerable to attack,” Seigle said.

That is the uncomfortable truth behind the current oil panic. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most important energy choke point. Reuters described it as a route for about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows before Iran effectively shut the strait after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February. The International Energy Agency says around 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade normally transits Hormuz.

The disruption has split the region into winners and losers.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have working bypass routes. Saudi oil can move west to Yanbu on the Red Sea. UAE crude can move east to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Reuters reported that only Saudi Arabia and the UAE currently have operational crude pipelines that can reroute major flows around Hormuz.

But Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain remain far more exposed. They depend heavily on the Gulf route for energy exports.

Hormuz Crisis: The Gulf’s New Oil Map

That is why new infrastructure has become a strategic priority. The UAE is accelerating a second oil pipeline to Fujairah. The goal is to double export capacity through a port outside Hormuz by 2027. Kuwait has drawn lessons from the crisis and now sees more pipeline projects and storage capacity as urgent. Iraq is again looking at its Basra-Haditha-Aqaba route, which could one day carry southern Iraqi oil toward Jordan’s Red Sea port.

The logic is clear. Every barrel that can leave the region without passing Iran’s coastline reduces Tehran’s leverage.

But Seigle’s warning cuts into the optimism.

A pipeline through the desert is not invisible. A rail line can be sabotaged. A port can be hit. A storage tank can burn. Even Saudi Arabia’s alternative route has shown vulnerability before. Reuters noted that an attack on Saudi energy infrastructure in 2019 proved that bypass systems are not immune.

So the Gulf’s “Plan B” does not erase risk. It moves risk.

The Real Derisking

For Seigle, the deeper answer is not only logistical. It is political.

“The real derisking,” he said, “comes from rapprochement with Tehran, if and when political conditions allow mutually beneficial outcomes.”

That is a very different message from the hardline argument that Iran’s leverage must be destroyed through pressure alone.

It means pipelines are insurance. Diplomacy is the real fire extinguisher.

But that path looks difficult right now. Reuters reported fresh hostilities this week, including Iranian attacks on Kuwait and U.S. strikes near Hormuz, while talks remained stalled. Oil prices jumped again as the ceasefire appeared to weaken.

The dilemma for the Gulf is brutal. If they do nothing, Iran keeps its hand on the region’s oil throat. If they build bypasses, they spend billions on infrastructure that can still be attacked. And if they seek a political opening with Tehran, they need conditions that may not exist during a war.

That makes the Hormuz crisis more than an oil story. It is a test of the future security order in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are proving that geography can be partly redesigned. But Seigle’s warning remains the central problem: You can reroute oil. You cannot reroute conflict so easily.

The Gulf can build new pipelines. But peace, or at least a cold understanding with Iran, may be the only route that truly bypasses Hormuz.