Tropical Storm Bertha Threatens Gulf Coast With Flooding

Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha late Monday or Monday night, threatening a broad stretch of the northern Gulf Coast with torrential rain, flash flooding, dangerous surf and a storm surge of up to four feet.

A tropical depression is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha today, with a threat of heavy rain along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas. Dr. Greg Postel has the latest update: pic.twitter.com/PvJFQG9nwb

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) July 20, 2026

As of 1 p.m. Central Time Monday, the system was centered approximately 110 miles south of Panama City, Florida, and 210 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was drifting erratically northwest at only 3 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. A storm receives a name once its sustained winds reach 39 mph.

The slow movement is increasing the flooding danger because the storm could dump heavy rain over the same areas for several days. Forecasters expect the depression to turn west-northwest and eventually west, moving near or along the northern Gulf Coast before approaching southeastern Louisiana around Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Bertha Could Track Toward Texas

The latest forecast takes the storm near southeastern Louisiana within roughly 60 hours. It could then continue westward toward southeastern Texas by Friday or Saturday, although the National Hurricane Center warned that the track remains uncertain because the storm is moving slowly and has an asymmetric structure.

Meteorologists expect gradual strengthening during the next one to two days. The system could peak with winds of approximately 50 mph before stronger wind shear begins disrupting it. However, even a relatively weak tropical storm could cause serious damage through flooding rather than wind.

A tropical storm watch extends from the Ochlockonee River in Florida westward to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions could reach the Florida Panhandle late Monday night or Tuesday, followed by other parts of the watch area from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A storm surge watch is also in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The hurricane center warned that life-threatening flooding from rising seawater is possible within 48 hours.

Flash Flooding Is the Main Bertha Threat

The storm is expected to produce two to four inches of rain through Friday from western Florida to the middle Texas coast. Isolated areas could receive as much as eight inches, creating a significant risk of flash flooding, particularly in cities and low-lying communities.

The heaviest rain and strongest winds may occur south of the storm’s center because northeasterly wind shear is pushing most of the thunderstorms to one side of the circulation. That means damaging conditions could extend far from the forecast track.

A storm surge of two to four feet is possible from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama-Florida border. Water levels of one to three feet above normally dry ground are possible elsewhere along parts of Louisiana and Florida, including Lake Pontchartrain.

The storm could also produce one or two isolated tornadoes in Florida’s Big Bend region. Dangerous swells are already affecting parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast and are expected to spread westward, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Bertha would become the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season after Tropical Storm Arthur. The hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA is predicting a below-normal season, with eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The agency gives the season a 55 percent chance of being below normal, in part because El Niño conditions are expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane development.