Trump Iran Dilemma: Expert Says President Could Just Wait
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The Trump Iran dilemma is becoming a political clock as much as a military crisis. Security expert Michael Pregent says U.S. President Donald Trump may decide not to force the issue before the elections. Instead, Pregent argues, the president could wait to see whether Republicans win control of the House and Senate. After that, Trump could conclude that he has less to lose politically.
“Maybe he’s the one that’s pausing,” Pregent said. “Maybe he’s the one that’s not going to do anything ahead of the elections.”
The core of the Trump Iran dilemma is simple but dangerous: Tehran’s nuclear material remains the central problem. According to the IAEA, Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent before the strikes. That is below weapons-grade level, but close enough to remain a major concern for Washington and U.S. allies.
Pregent said the next question is where that material is now. “This 440 kilos of enriched uranium from Iran, where do you think that is?” he asked. “And can this be retrieved?”
Trump Iran Dilemma: Pregent Warns Trump May Face A Final Choice
Pregent believes Trump could face a second-term argument from hardliners: finish the Iran problem now, so no future president has to inherit it.
“If the Republicans win the House and the Senate, or if they don’t, then he’s like: I got nothing to lose,” Pregent said. “Let’s take care of this. No future president has to deal with it.”
He said that argument may become stronger in the final two years of Trump’s presidency, when the president would effectively be a lame duck.
“That’ll be the argument a lot of people will be making to him,” Pregent said. “Finish this in your second term.”
The risk is obvious. Any attempt to seize, destroy or remove Iranian nuclear material could carry the possibility of American casualties. Pregent acknowledged that danger. He said the alternative could be a negotiated retreat if Iran is brought to the table on its own terms.
The Russia And China Factor
Pregent also argued that Russia and China may not want Iran to cross the nuclear threshold, even if both powers benefit from a weakened U.S. position in the Middle East.
“I still fall back on my belief that neither Russia nor China want Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Pregent said.
His reasoning: both countries want Iran’s economy opened so they can benefit from it. But, according to Pregent, they still want Tehran to stay inside the nuclear nonproliferation system.
He recalled a meeting with Russians close to Vladimir Putin about six years ago. When Iran’s nuclear ambitions came up, Pregent said the Russian side was blunt.
“You will not have a nuclear weapon,” he recalled them saying.
Less Strategic Weight For The Strait of Hormuz
Pregent also said the strategic weight of the Strait of Hormuz may decline if the U.S. and its allies build a stronger alternative energy and export architecture around the region. In his view, Hormuz remains vital today because so much oil and gas still moves through the narrow waterway. But that leverage could shrink if Gulf states expand pipelines, ports and export routes outside Iran’s reach.
That would weaken Tehran’s ability to threaten global markets every time tensions rise. For Trump, Pregent argues, that could become another reason to finish the Iran crisis now: remove the nuclear threat and reduce Iran’s power over Hormuz before the next president inherits the same dilemma.
For Trump, the dilemma remains unresolved. A deal could reduce the immediate danger but leave Iran with leverage. A strike could remove the threat but trigger a wider war. Pregent’s warning is that the decision may not come now. It may come after the elections, when Trump’s political calculation changes.
